আন্তর্জাতিক মুদ্রা তহবিলের (আইএমএফ) সাড়ে ৪ বিলিয়ন ডলারের ঋণ পেতে বিভিন্ন শর্ত মানতে হচ্ছে বাংলাদেশকে। প্রাতিষ্ঠানিক সংস্কার করতে হচ্ছে। এসব শর্ত অর্থনীতিতে চ্যালেঞ্জ আরও বাড়িয়ে তুলছে। সর্বশেষ একদিনে ডলারের দাম ৭ টাকা বাড়ানো হয়েছে। এতে ডলারের বিপরীতে টাকার মান কমেছে ৬.৩৬ শতাংশ। ডলারের এই দর বৃদ্ধিতে চাপ তৈরি হবে বিদেশি ঋণ পরিশোধে। পাশাপাশি দেশের বৈদেশিক মুদ্রার রিজার্ভ কমে ১৮ বিলিয়ন ডলারের ঘরে নেমে আসায় আরেক চাপ তৈরি হয়েছে।
অর্থনীতিবিদরা বলছেন, বাংলাদেশের উন্নয়ন ব্যয়ে বড় অংশের জোগান আসে বিদেশি ঋণ সহায়তায়। এ ঋণের সুদ ও আসল পরিশোধে সরকারের ব্যয় এখন ক্রমেই বাড়ছে। ডলারের দাম বৃদ্ধির কারণে সুদহার বেড়ে যাবে। বাড়বে সংকট।
সরকারি-বেসরকারি বিদেশি ঋণ আরও ব্যয়বহুল হবে। পুঁজিবাজার থেকে বিদেশি বিনিয়োগ প্রত্যাহার বেড়ে যাবে।
বিদেশি ঋণের সুদ এবং আসল পরিশোধ বাবদ চলতি অর্থবছরের গত ৯ মাসে আগের অর্থবছরের একই সময়ের চেয়ে ৬৭ শতাংশ বেশি টাকা ব্যয় করতে হয়েছে, ডলারের হিসাবে যা ৪৮ শতাংশ বেশি। ডলারের দাম নতুন করে আরেক দফা বেড়ে যাওয়ায় বিদেশি ঋণ পরিশোধে বড় ধরনের চাপ তৈরি হলো। শুধু মুদ্রার অবমূল্যায়নের কারণেই সমপরিমাণ সুদাসল পরিশোধে বেশি টাকা দরকার হবে।
বিদেশি ঋণের সুদ ও আসল পরিশোধে সরকারের ব্যয় ক্রমেই বাড়ছে। অর্থনৈতিক সম্পর্ক বিভাগের (ইআরডি) তথ্য অনুযায়ী, বিভিন্ন দেশ ও দাতা সংস্থা চলতি অর্থবছরের (২০২৩-২৪) প্রথম ৯ মাসে (জুলাই-মার্চ) বাংলাদেশের অনুকূলে ঋণের অর্থ ছাড় করেছে ৫৬৩ কোটি ডলার। এ সময় সরকারকে বিদেশি ঋণের সুদ ও আসল পরিশোধ করতে হয়েছে ২৫৭ কোটি ১৫ লাখ ডলার। সে হিসেবে অর্থবছরের প্রথম ৯ মাসে বাংলাদেশের অনুকূলে ঋণ হিসেবে ছাড়কৃত অর্থের অর্ধেকের কাছাকাছি (প্রায় ৪৬ শতাংশ) ব্যয় হয়েছে ঋণের কিস্তি (সুদ ও আসল) পরিশোধে। এর আগে ২০২২-২৩ অর্থবছরে একই সময়ে (জুলাই-মার্চ) দেশে বিদেশি ঋণের অর্থছাড় হয় ৫৩৬ কোটি ৩০ লাখ ডলার। আর ওই সময়ে ঋণ পরিশোধে (আসল ও সুদ) ব্যয় হয় ১৭৩ কোটি ৩ লাখ ডলার, যা ছাড়কৃত অর্থের ৩২.২৬ শতাংশ। গত ৯ মাসে শুধু সুদ পরিশোধের পরিমাণ ১০৫ কোটি ৪৯ লাখ ডলার, গত অর্থবছরের একই সময়ে, যা ছিল ৪৮ কোটি ৫৯ লাখ ডলার। গত ৯ মাসে আসল পরিশোধ হয় ১৫২ কোটি ডলার, যা গত অর্থবছরের একই সময় ছিল প্রায় ১২৪ কোটি ডলার।
ইআরডি’র তথ্য বলছে, গত ৯ মাসে বিদেশি ঋণের সুদাসল বাবদ ২৮ হাজার ২৮১ কোটি টাকা পরিশোধ করতে হয়েছে; গত অর্থবছরের একই সময়ে যা ছিল ১৬ হাজার ৯৬৫ কোটি টাকা। টাকার হিসাবে ৬৬.৭ শতাংশ টাকা বেশি পরিশোধ করতে হয়েছে। এক বছরের ব্যবধানে টাকার মান কমেছে ২৫ শতাংশ। নতুন করে টাকার মান কমায় শুধু এ কারণেই পরিশোধের চাপ বাড়বে।
সূত্র জানায়, বাড়তি ব্যয় জোগানে ডলার সরবরাহ বাড়ানোর চেষ্টা করছে সরকার। এজন্য উন্নয়ন সহযোগীদের কাছ থেকে বাজেট সহায়তা পাওয়ার তৎপরতা বাড়ানো হয়েছে। একই উদ্দেশ্যে প্রকল্প ঋণ বাড়ানোর চেষ্টাও চলছে। এরমধ্যে বিশ্বব্যাংকের কাছ থেকে ৫০ কোটি ডলার আগামী জুনের মধ্যে পাওয়ার সম্ভাবনা রয়েছে। এর বাইরে বাজেট সহায়তা হিসেবে বহুপক্ষীয় উন্নয়ন সহযোগী বিশ্বব্যাংক, এশীয় উন্নয়ন ব্যাংক (এডিবি), এশীয় অবকাঠামো বিনিয়োগ ব্যাংক (এআইআইবি) এবং দ্বিপক্ষীয় উন্নয়ন সহযোগী ফ্রান্স সাহায্য সংস্থাসহ বিভিন্ন সংস্থার কাছ থেকে বাজেট সহায়তা পাওয়ার চেষ্টা করছে সরকার।
এদিকে চলতি মাসের শেষদিকে বা আগামী মাসের প্রথমদিকে আইএমএফের কাছ থেকে ঋণের তৃতীয় কিস্তি বাবদ ১১৫ কোটি ২০ লাখ ডলার পাওয়া যাবে (তখন রিজার্ভ আবার কিছুটা বাড়বে)। এর কারণ হলো, আর্থিক, মুদ্রা, রাজস্ব, জ্বালানিসহ বিভিন্ন খাতে যেসব শর্ত দিয়েছিল তারা, এর বেশির ভাগই সরকার এরইমধ্যে পালন করেছে। তবে আইএমএফ সন্তুষ্ট হলেও যেসব শর্ত তারা বাংলাদেশকে মানতে বাধ্য করেছে তাতে চাপে পড়ছে দেশের অর্থনীতি।
সিপিডি’র বিশেষ ফেলো ড. দেবপ্রিয় ভট্টাচার্য বলেন, চলতি বছরে বিদেশি ঋণ পরিশোধে ঝুঁকি তৈরি হয়েছে। ২০২৬ সালে ঝুঁকির মাত্রা আরও বাড়বে। বিদেশি ঋণ পরিশোধে বাংলাদেশ কখনো খেলাপি হয়নি, সেই বিশ্বাসে এখন ফাটল ধরেছে।
সিপিডি’র আরেক ফেলো মোস্তাফিজুর রহমান বলেন, দেশে বড় কয়েকটি প্রকল্পের ঋণের ম্যাচুরিটি পিরিয়ড শুরু হচ্ছে। এগুলোর সুদ-আসল পরিশোধ শুরু হয়েছে। এটি ক্রমান্বয়ে বাড়ছে। আগামীতে আরও বাড়বে।
বিশ্বব্যাংকের ঢাকা কার্যালয়ের সাবেক প্রধান অর্থনীতিবিদ ড. জাহিদ হোসেন বলেন, সরকারের এখন নগদ ডলার দরকার। সে হিসেবে বাজেট সহায়তা পাওয়ার চেষ্টা করছে সরকার।
ডলারের দাম বাড়ায় নতুন করে বিপাকে পড়েছেন সরকার ও বিদেশি ঋণ নেয়া স্থানীয় ব্যবসায়ীরা; বিশেষ করে যাদের ডলারে আয় নেই, তাদের লোকসানের পাল্লা আরও ভারী হতে পারে। এসব কোম্পানিকে বিদেশি ঋণ পরিশোধের ক্ষেত্রে আরও অন্তত সাড়ে ৬ শতাংশ হারে লোকসান গুনতে হবে। এরমধ্যে সরকারি অনেক কোম্পানিও রয়েছে।
ইআরডি’র তথ্য অনুযায়ী, চলতি অর্থবছরের তিন প্রান্তিকে বাংলাদেশে সবচেয়ে বেশি ঋণ সহায়তার প্রতিশ্রুতি এসেছে বিশ্বব্যাংক, এশিয়ান ডেভেলপমেন্ট ব্যাংক (এডিবি) এবং জাপানের কাছ থেকে। এরমধ্যে বিশ্বব্যাংক ঋণ প্রতিশ্রুতি দিয়েছে ২৬২ কোটি ডলারের। ছাড় করেছে ১৪০ কোটি ২৭ লাখ ডলার। এডিবি ঋণ প্রতিশ্রুতি দিয়েছে ১৪১ কোটি ৮০ লাখ ডলারের। ছাড় করেছে ৯৬ কোটি ৭৩ লাখ ডলার। জাপানের প্রতিশ্রুত ও ছাড়কৃত অর্থের পরিমাণ যথাক্রমে ২০৩ কোটি ৫৯ লাখ ও ১৩৫ কোটি ৮০ লাখ ডলার। চীনের কাছ থেকে এ সময় কোনো ঋণ প্রতিশ্রুতি পাওয়া যায়নি।
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